NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Center:Andy Reid's best work yet? Chiefs coach's 2023 season was one of his finest

HENDERSON,NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Center Nev. – Super Bowl 58 will mark a quarter-century as an NFL head coach for Andy Reid. And whether or not his Kansas City Chiefs win their third Lombardi Trophy in five seasons Sunday night in Las Vegas, some have already suggested the 2023 campaign represents Reid’s finest work.

“Yeah, I would agree with that,” Chiefs tight end Blake Bell told USA TODAY Sports on Thursday.

“He kept it all together and made sure, with the ups and downs we went through this year, coming back during the week of practice, he’s like, ‘Hey, man, everyone just stay the course. Keep doing us. We don’t need to change anything, we’ve just got to correct a few things here and there and be us.’

“We’ve kept it going through the playoffs, and now we’re here at the Super Bowl. Like he always says, ‘Don’t peak too soon, man.’”

It’s an apt statement following a season of peaks and valleys.

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The Chiefs opened their title defense in September with a one-point home loss to the Detroit Lions, stars Travis Kelce (knee injury) and Chris Jones (holdout) missing that Week 1 contest. Then Kansas City reeled off six straight wins before dropping five of the next eight – that stretch culminating with an ugly Christmas defeat at Arrowhead Stadium to the division-rival Las Vegas Raiders. Kelce tossed his helmet in frustration on the sideline during that setback, causing Reid to get into his Pro Bowl tight end’s face.

“I don’t know if it’s his best (season). I think he’s always been great,” Hall of Fame coach Bill Cowher told USA TODAY Sports. “I think what was exposed this year was his ability to adjust and adapt to his football team.

“The low point they reached on Christmas Day – people throwing helmets – getting back and realizing they are a defensive football team with a good running back in Isiah Pacheco, and Patrick Mahomes can make the plays when he needs to make them to win football games.

“Andy adjusts, adapts, is a great teacher, and I think showed that this year because we saw more flaws than we have in the past.”

But those blemishes seemingly diminished, the Chiefs currently riding a five-game winning streak post-Christmas as they prepare for their fourth Super Bowl in five seasons. And, as Cowher suggests, that’s been accomplished with a formula mostly antithetical to a club that’s captured six consecutive AFC West titles. This year, that was largely accomplished thanks to perhaps the best defense a Reid team has ever fielded and a more methodical, ball control offense that required fewer highlight moments from two-time MVP quarterback Mahomes.

“He’s done a great job. I mean, he’s one of those guys that can’t win Coach of the Year because he’s done it too great for too long,” Mahomes said Thursday while also praising the stable culture Reid also fosters.

“(H)e’s been able to really just get the best out of every single team that he’s had. And he’s done a tremendous job this year of dealing through adverse times, having that same mindset every single day of, ‘We’re gonna get better,’ and obviously gotten us to the Super Bowl.”

Ask enough players and assistants, and the clear throughline with Reid is his consistency and even-keeled approach. It starts with a detail-oriented offseason, followed by a rigorous training camp conducted an hour from Kansas City – and, eventually, a playoff berth and likely appearance on Super Sunday.

“I mean, I’ve been here 13 years with him, and he’s never gotten off track. This has been a constant incline of greatness, and I’ve been very fortunate to (have) him overlooking my career, helping me out both on and off the field, as a professional (and) as a human being. I owe so much to him,” Kelce said Thursday. "Just extremely, extremely fortunate that I landed here in Kansas City 13 years ago to be able to build this thing with him like this.

“We’re just so fortunate to have the big guy here and at the helm.”

Yet 2023 wasn’t without its unique challenges.

The Chiefs had to integrate a pair of new offensive tackles with veterans Donovan Smith and Jawaan Taylor. They ranked 15th in scoring (21.8 points per game) while the offense rated ninth overall (351.3 yards per game), both the lowest ebbs since Mahomes became Reid’s starter in 2018. An 11-6 regular-season record was also the worst under the Reid-Mahomes partnership and forced the team onto the road for playoff games for the first time since the 2015 season – not that games at Buffalo or Baltimore turned out to be much of an impediment.

“Andy’s had a lot of good years of good coaching, so it’s hard to pick any one. The one thing about Andy is he’s so steady and consistent no matter what year you’re in,” defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, who’s totaled 13 years on Reid’s staffs in Philadelphia and Kansas City, told USA TODAY Sports.

“And I think because this year had some ups and downs, I think people recognize it as one of his better years because you never saw him waver – and the players feel that. Andy’s rock solid, and there’s nothing that gets him out of his routine. He never gets too high, he never gets too low – and I think the rest of us feed off of that.”

Offensive coordinator Matt Nagy, who has aggregated 12 years on Reid staffs with the Eagles and Chiefs, echoes that.

“The one reason why people probably steer toward this (season) as one of his more successful ones is just probably because some of the doubt that went on from outsiders – never within our building – but there’s always challenges, too. We weren’t a top-three offense like we normally are,” Nagy told USA TODAY Sports.

“But he’s resilient. The beautiful part about Coach Reid is that he just shows a lot of belief in his coaches and players, and then you feel that and then it helps you stick together.”

And now?

Despite the relative trials and tribulations, K.C. is one win from the first Super Bowl repeat in 19 years.

“There’s a method to the madness. He’s been doing it for a long time, and it’s worked, and I think guys respect that,” said Bell. “Coach Reid knows exactly what it takes to get to the Super Bowl and to win a Super Bowl. Guys love that.”

Added veteran safety Justin Reid: “Coach Reid does what he does, man. We’re exactly where we wanted to be.”

Follow USA TODAY Sports' Nate Davis on X, formerly Twitter @ByNateDavis.